In September 2026, the median price of a single-family home in Santa Clara County was $1,920,000, down 4.0% from September 2025, according to the California Association of REALTORS September report. The same release put the county's active listings 26.4% above a year earlier. If you're comparing cities, those two numbers suggest buyers have room to negotiate across the county.
That room exists, but it's concentrated in a few places. Most of the extra inventory landed in San Jose, Los Gatos and Morgan Hill. In Sunnyvale, Mountain View, Palo Alto and Los Altos, September closings still ran 107% to 109% of list price, with average days on market between 10 and 22. If you write the same offer in both parts of the county, you'll overpay in one or lose the house in the other.
The county added 212 listings, and San Jose holds 125 of them
The Santa Clara County Association of REALTORS September 2026 table counted 1,224 single-family homes in current inventory countywide. SCCAOR's September 2025 table counted 1,012. Breaking that gain of 212 homes down by city shows where it came from:
- San Jose: 481 to 606, up 125
- Morgan Hill: 63 to 82, up 19
- Los Gatos: 72 to 86, up 14
- Sunnyvale, Mountain View, Palo Alto, Cupertino and Los Altos combined: up 23
San Jose, Morgan Hill and Los Gatos account for about three of every four added listings. San Jose also closed 367 of the county's 726 single-family sales in September 2026, so roughly half of all transactions feed the county median from a single city. San Jose's median slipped from $1,650,000 in September 2025 to $1,568,888 in September 2026, and its share of list price received fell from 103% to 102%. With half the county's sales, a small shift in San Jose moves the county number on its own.
Inventory against closings shows the split more clearly than medians do
City medians are unreliable in a single month. Mountain View's single-family median was $2,550,000 in August 2026 and $3,020,000 in September, on 12 and 29 sales. That swing reflects which houses happened to close more than any change in value.
A steadier measure is how many homes sat in inventory for each home that closed that month. The ratio below is our own calculation from SCCAOR's city rows, not a months-of-supply figure SCCAOR publishes. Near 1.0, the shelf clears about as fast as it fills. At 3 or higher, buyers have choices and sellers are waiting.
| City | Inventory per closing, Sept 2025 | Inventory per closing, Sept 2026 | Avg. days on market, Sept 2026 | % of list received, Sept 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sunnyvale | 0.86 | 0.77 | 10 | 107% |
| Mountain View | 0.90 | 0.93 | 20 | 109% |
| Los Altos | 0.86 | 1.08 | 22 | 108% |
| Palo Alto | 1.33 | 1.18 | 16 | 109% |
| Cupertino | 1.47 | 1.72 | 14 | 106% |
| Santa Clara | 0.94 | 1.40 | 20 | 105% |
| San Jose | 1.35 | 1.65 | 28 | 102% |
| Saratoga | 2.06 | 1.58 | 34 | 100% |
| Gilroy | 4.55 | 2.72 | 45 | 100% |
| Los Gatos | 2.57 | 3.44 | 38 | 103% |
| Morgan Hill | 1.80 | 3.90 | 35 | 99% |
The north-county cities at the top of the table were already tight a year ago, and Sunnyvale got tighter. Morgan Hill's ratio more than doubled. Gilroy and Saratoga moved the other way and cleared more of their inventory than they did in September 2025, though both still sold at 100% of list. Santa Clara sits in between. Its ratio rose and its list-price figure dropped from 108% to 105%, so the cooling around San Jose has started to reach into the middle of the county.
The August 2026 table shows the same pattern: Palo Alto at 111% of list, Sunnyvale and Mountain View at 107%, Gilroy and Morgan Hill at 101%. Two months in a row, the north county paid above asking and the south county paid about list.
The fast typical sale and the slow average describe the same market
C.A.R. put Santa Clara County's median time on market at 11 days in September 2026. SCCAOR's countywide average days on market for single-family homes was 27. They're separate datasets, but the gap matches what the city table shows. Most homes sell quickly, and a longer tail of slow listings, concentrated in the cities with the most inventory, pulls the average up. If a seller says homes in the county go in about a week and a half, that's accurate for the typical sale. A listing in Los Gatos or Gilroy that has sat for five weeks is still in line with the September averages for those cities.
Financing costs went up during the same period. C.A.R. calculated that the 30-year fixed rate averaged 6.86% in September 2026, compared with 6.35% in September 2025. Statewide, C.A.R. attributed most of the rise in active listings to slower sales from higher rates and seasonal demand, more than to a surge of new sellers. In Santa Clara County, slower sales showed up in some cities and not in others.
The office map overlaps the hot cities, with one exception
Commercial real estate data points the same way. The Mercury News reported on October 16, 2026 that South Bay office vacancy fell to 13.4% in the third quarter, citing Colliers. The same article reported that Sunnyvale's vacancy was 8.4%, after Google renewed 2.1 million square feet across several Sunnyvale locations, Amazon leased 318,300 square feet at 1000 Enterprise Way, and Hewlett Packard Enterprise signed a 318,000-square-foot deal. It also reported that AI firm Physical Intelligence leased 233,500 square feet.
"The Silicon Valley market is definitely on a hot streak right now," Colliers research director Mike Pham told the Mercury News.
According to the article, San Jose's office vacancy was 18.3% and Campbell-Los Gatos was at 22.4%, the highest in the region. Those are the same areas where homes sit longer. Gilroy and Morgan Hill don't fit the pattern, with 1.5% office vacancy and some of the county's slowest home sales. Treat the office data as context for why demand near the big campuses held up, not as a forecast.
How to adjust an offer to the city
If you're comparing a Sunnyvale three-bedroom with a larger San Jose or Morgan Hill house at a similar payment, you're choosing between two different negotiations as well as two homes.
- In Sunnyvale, Mountain View, Palo Alto and Los Altos, plan your budget around what homes are selling for. At 107% to 109% of list in September 2026, a $2.5 million asking price meant a winning price of about $2.68 million to $2.73 million. Get your loan approval and appraisal-gap cushion set before the first weekend of showings, because the average listing in Sunnyvale lasted 10 days.
- In San Jose, Los Gatos and Morgan Hill, look at how long the listing has been up. With 28 to 38 average days on market and inventory well above monthly closings, a listing several weeks old gives you room to ask for repair credits, a longer contingency period or a lower price. Morgan Hill closed at 99% of list in September.
- In Santa Clara, Campbell and Milpitas, check each listing. These cities fell from 105% to 108% of list in September 2025 to 102% to 105% in September 2026. A well-priced house may still get multiple offers, while one that has been listed longer may not.
- For renovation buyers, the south-county inventory is where to look. A longer listing period leaves time for a contractor walkthrough and a scope estimate before you set a price. In the north county, you usually need that work done before the offer deadline, or the house may already be sold.
Frequently asked questions
Are Santa Clara County home prices falling? The county single-family median was down 4.0% year over year in September 2026 by C.A.R.'s count. San Jose, which closes about half the county's sales, drove most of that. Sunnyvale's median rose from $2,691,500 to $2,820,000 over the same 12 months.
Why do SCCAOR and C.A.R. report different county medians? They're separate data series. SCCAOR reported $1,880,000 for September 2026, and C.A.R. reported $1,920,000. Both show the county below its year-earlier level.
Is Cupertino on the hot side? Mostly. It sold at 106% of list with a 14-day average in September 2026, though it had only 18 closings and its inventory ratio rose from 1.47 to 1.72.
Perry's construction background helps in both kinds of negotiation. In Sunnyvale, it means pricing renovation work before an offer deadline. In Morgan Hill, it means turning a house that has sat for weeks into a repair-credit request backed by real numbers. If you're deciding which part of Santa Clara County to focus on, Perry Kayasone can walk you through the inventory and list-price figures for the cities you're considering. Call Perry.
